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This represents a slowing in nominal GDP growth following an increase of 1.2% in the first quarter of 2019 (Figure 14). Quarterly revisions then only affect top level HHFCE at +0.15pp in 2018Q1. The slowdown is in line with the UK Services Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) (PDF, 183KB) for June 2019, which reported that the services industry was close to stagnation, linked to the “sluggish domestic economic conditions and greater risk aversion among clients in response to ongoing Brexit uncertainty”. The main positive contribution to services sector growth came from the transport, storage and communications industries, in which output increased by 0.6% in Quarter 2 2019. The relative volatility throughout 2019 in the UK economy has been particularly pronounced in the production industry, which increased by 1.1% in Quarter 1 2019, and fell by 1.8% in Quarter 2 2019 (Figure 7). How is the UK economy performing compared with other European and non-European countries? There has been a partially offsetting upward revision to 2.0% in 2018 because of revisions to government and other services. This aligns average GDP growth with growth in the output approach to measuring GDP, with upward revisions to government expenditure, gross capital formation (GCF) and trade exports in the expenditure approach and gross operating surplus of corporations in the income approach. For further information on the methodological revisions to construction output, please see the Revisions to GDP section of this publication. Private consumption, government consumption and net trade contributed positively, while gross capital formation contributed negatively to GDP growth in Quarter 2 2019. There have been revisions to the quarterly path of real GDP throughout 2017 and 2018 (Figure 2). The Index of Services, Index of Production and Construction output in Great Britain publications covering the period up to July 2019 are also available. Gross Savings Rate of United Kingdom was measured at 18.570 % in Mar 2020. Trade imports and exports have been volatile this year, in part reflecting the effects of movements of unspecified goods – which include non-monetary gold – in the first two quarters of the year. This will include any methodological improvements and new supply-use balancing for these years. Despite increasing by an unrevised 0.1% in Quarter 2 – the weakest quarterly figure in three years – the services sector continued to provide the main positive contribution to overall GDP growth in the second quarter of 2019 (Figure 4). This data source replaces estimates initially gathered from the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) for some industries. Population data are consistent with the 26 June 2019 published estimates. Source: Office for National Statistics (UK) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In the income approach to measuring GDP we see an upward revision of 2.3 percentage points to gross operating surplus of corporations. However, public housing new work made a positive contribution, reflected in the latest Bank of England’s Agents’ Summary Survey where it was reported that “growth in social and affordable housing remained stronger” despite weaker housing market activity. These movements do not affect headline GDP as they are recorded as equivalent offsetting impacts in the UK National Accounts, but they are reflected in the composition of GDP growth. As such, data for all periods within this release are subject to revision in line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy. Services output was revised upwards by 0.2 percentage points, with upward revisions across all four services sectors resulting from revisions to VAT turnover data and Monthly Business Survey estimates incorporated in this release. The error affects figures for 2017, 2018 and 2019 and has an impact on top level HHFCE, total gross domestic product (GDP) and Real Household Disposable Income (RHDI). Increases in the implied deflator are in part due to increases in fuel prices – particularly crude oil prices – which are in line with quarterly movements in CPI. these components feed into higher- level COICOP series which have not all been listed. GDP and some of its components have been particularly volatile through the year so far, largely reflecting changes in the timing of activity related to the UK’s original planned exit date from the European Union in late March. Revisions in the 2019 Q3 publications if all else was equal: The impact on 2018 annual CVM growth at top level (national concept) HHFCE is -0.13pp. In the first quarterly estimate of GDP the implied deflator was initially strong. Within Quarterly Sector Accounts, RHDI would see revisions range from -0.1pp in five of the affected quarters to +0.2pp in 2018Q3 and 2019Q2.

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