econtalk taleb
I mean, there is worse--And, here you're saying that if the average death rate from this pandemic forecast, which is based on a zillion assumptions also, is a million people, that that prediction is essentially meaningless. Someone came up with a statistic that being hit by a car represented much larger risks for people.
The WHO did not declare it a pandemic for another month. Yes, of course, many people have done so. Do we know enough about it today to conclude this is not the mega-bullet? The relevant papers discussed in the episode: ‘Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens – Coronavirus: A Note’ — Joseph Norman, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
It’s actually fattest tail.So, we spend a trillion dollars on weaponry, nuclear warheads. An EconTalk Podcast Listening Guide Nassim Taleb on the Financial Crisis Listen to the EconTalk podcast Nassim Taleb on the Financial Crisis and consider these questions. But the criteria for assessing risk should be much more nuanced and sophisticated than Taleb suggests and reaction needs to be much earlier — as he actually advocates.1,000 may be a useful criterion for historical research but that also will introduce selection bias as it will ignore risks (e.g. Masks: A little bit of inside baseball for the non-medical people. I feel like we do, but that’s just my 2 cents and I’m not sure Taleb would agree given his comments.I also would have asked how practical ‘quarantines’ would be as a crisis response.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Russ Roberts have a spirited conversation about masks and pandemic risks. The protocol is we have something to take seriously. Wasn’t it yesterday that everyone thought the world was going to be destroyed by single-use plastic straws and bags.
Does the sock mask Russ recommended really do any good at all (from my understanding, little if any good)? Breaking the constitution (local authorities wielding near unlimited control of ‘their’ subjects), forcing those who are not sick to stay home (destroying their ability to earn and likely increasing overdose deaths… approx 5,000 more in March, April, May 2020 than 2019), not allowing people to leave their house (vitamin D is a critical modulator of the immune system), etc. Definitely not strong enough to call concerns about the logic or the data stupid.Not a very strong causative argument?
The data for social distancing is quite good for 3 feet, however; 6 feet, not so much.. This seems like very bad advice and Nassim didn’t take it himself.
They have generally been slow, as you’d expect of a large bureaucracy. Is this good for the species in the long run?What do nuclear weapons have to do with pandemic protocols? There’s uncertainty in the sense that we don’t know whether it is going to kill 100,000 people or 1 billion people. No. Government intervention comes when there is a novel pathogen with high rate of spread.You also did not discuss, at least enough, the deaths that shutting the economy or borders will cause.My guess is that’s because those things aren’t contagious so limited possible harm they can cause.And pandemics are not vastly more dangerous as war. Yes, people would (have) made their own. Unique and forward looking, SkyBridge Capital is a pioneer in the alternative asset management industry leading an evolution in the fund of funds space.
Criticizing naive modeling while coming up with such an arbitrary conclusion (from an non-described blackbox model) felt very awkward for several reasons.Indeed Nassim mentions mutations as one of the reason why we should be very watchful for those 1k+ deaths pandemics, but fails to address that mutations overwhelmingly occur to make viruses less lethal, not more so, but more importantly that it could happen to any strain of virus, not just the already deadly ones.It’s also disingenuous to handwave away the concern that the governmental response to the pandemic might have been costly. Definitely not strong enough to call concerns about the logic or the data stupid.All-cause mortality went up around the same time as covid arrived, so it’s definitely logical to conclude that it’s caused by covid. 55 Russ – this is a great conversation and puts a lot of the risks of the pandemic into perspective. I would echo the comment I’ve seen in other posts that the arguments seemed to get shakier as the conversation went on.
This is extremely well put… “At least some of the greatest science in our lifetimes comes from a blazing insight into properties, and evidence is only there to confirm or confound.”You are right on the money, in my opinion.
Were that true, the data would show something different: relatively stable all-cause mortality even as deaths attributed to Covid-19 surge.
Because you had the television, okay, he really--So, you have the same concentration, the same thing will happen, with diseases, that you would have a winner-take-all disease taking over the planet. It is very selfish for you to not reduce your risk, because a contagious disease has different properties. The financial cost of the response– measured not only in dollars, but in the indebtedness we bequeath to our descendants– must be considered. In the meantime I recommend the series of interviews on the UnHerd YouTube channel.Interesting discussion but I must admit I probably missed points and would benefit from listening again.2) Must it be an all or nothing on the extent of precautions people must take. If I’ve learned anything from economics it’s that things that sound good often have bad unintended consequence and sometimes those unintended consequences are worse than the original, purported ‘good thing’.
They can only process so much prophylaxis at once. It's common, log-normal, which is not the worst. So, there you go. Simple.And, you could argue it was important for him to scare people into being more cautious, and that was the payoff for this. Topics discussed include how to handle the rest of this pandemic and the next one, the power of the mask, geronticide, and soul in the game.Nassim Nicholas Taleb talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the manuscript version of his forthcoming book, Skin in the Game.
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